Scenario planning - Revision history

Lilith2 at 14:07, 9 October 2015

2015-10-09T14:07:11Z

Lilith2: /* Diagramming of effects */

2015-09-20T09:20:57Z

‎Diagramming of effects

Lilith2 at 09:19, 20 September 2015

2015-09-20T09:19:45Z

Lilith2: /* Diagramming of effects */

2015-09-20T09:12:59Z

‎Diagramming of effects

Lilith2: /* Data mining for key factors */

2015-09-20T09:11:10Z

‎Data mining for key factors

Lilith2 at 09:09, 20 September 2015

2015-09-20T09:09:36Z

Lilith2: /* An opportunistic scenario */

2015-09-13T10:25:41Z

‎An opportunistic scenario

Lilith2: /* An opportunistic scenario */

2015-09-12T18:14:12Z

‎An opportunistic scenario

Lilith2: /* HANDY */

2015-09-12T13:17:11Z

‎HANDY

Lilith2: /* Overshoot loops and collapses */

2015-09-12T13:16:38Z

‎Overshoot loops and collapses

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 == Example of a short-term scenario planning ==
-Short-term scenario planning is useful for [[Threat_modeling_the_quick_and_dirty_way#Journalist.2C_observer_or_sousveillant_in_europe|threat modeling the quick and dirty way]]. In this example, ideas for new tools for "Journalist, observer or sousveillant roles in europe" that cut across digital and analogue space can emerge.
+Short-term scenario planning is useful for threat modelling. In this example, ideas for new tools for "Journalist, observer or sousveillant roles in europe" that cut across digital and analogue space can emerge.
 === Decision focus ===

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 A resilient (distributed, partly underground when and where necessary) solidarity network.
-== Diagramming of effects ==
+== Examples of diagramming of effects ==
-−
 === Gut, head, and decision making ===
 Visualisation of Decision Architecture: Helping Users Make Better Decisions http://www.uxmatters.com/mt/archives/2010/11/decision-architecture-helping-users-make-better-decisions.php

@@ Line 66: / Line 66: @@
 Normally called causal-loop diagrams. In 'diagramming of effects' observables were added, next to measurables, allowing for inclusion of "[[Ominous_dots#Phenomenal_consciousness|phenomenal consciousness]]".
-== Short-term scenario planning: Journalist, observer or sousveillant in europe ==
+== Example of a short-term scenario planning ==
-This is for [[Threat_modeling_the_quick_and_dirty_way#Journalist.2C_observer_or_sousveillant_in_europe|threat modeling the quick and dirty way]] and for discovering (ideas for new) tools cutting across digital and analogue space.
+Short-term scenario planning is useful for [[Threat_modeling_the_quick_and_dirty_way#Journalist.2C_observer_or_sousveillant_in_europe|threat modeling the quick and dirty way]]. In this example, ideas for new tools for "Journalist, observer or sousveillant roles in europe" that cut across digital and analogue space can emerge.
 === Decision focus ===
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 * What might happen if they do?
-== Simulation: The Alpha Complex ==
+== Example of a long-term scenario planning ==
 This example is unseriously seriously meant for designing a real world (analog) roleplay simulation game with (much more fun than workshops and serious scenario planning). And since we have great facilitators everywhere, a worthy challenge. And those have a hacker attitude (no problem should ever be solved twice http://www.catb.org/esr/faqs/hacker-howto.html#attitude): The Alpha Complex is an excellent base to build simulation games as this one on. <ref>Paranoia (roleplaying game) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paranoia_%28role-playing_game%29</ref>

@@ Line 63: / Line 63: @@
 For its vulnerabilities see [[Confusing surveillance systems]].
-== Diagramming of effects ==
+=== Diagramming of effects ===
 Normally called causal-loop diagrams. In 'diagramming of effects' observables were added, next to measurables, allowing for inclusion of "[[Ominous_dots#Phenomenal_consciousness|phenomenal consciousness]]".

@@ Line 58: / Line 58: @@
 Then focus on what the name of our game is and address the inverse question. Beef up the skeletal scenarios to discover the insights we need.
-== Data mining for key factors ==
+===  Data mining for key factors ===
-=== Bayesian logic ===
+====  Bayesian logic  ====
 For its vulnerabilities see [[Confusing surveillance systems]].

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 ** The volatility of the oil market ("power of scarcity").
 A previous report, published in 2004 by the Institute for Policy Studies, demonstrates how multilateral support for oil is consistent with an agenda to diversify oil supplies for Northern consumption, and open Southern reserves to Northern corporate investment. It also noted that 82 percent of all oil extractive projects funded by the World Bank Group since 1992 are export-oriented, and primarily serve the energy needs of the North, not the South.
 === An opportunistic scenario ===

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 . Repeating colonialist mistakes. Believing we know better than local people. Intervening in a system we do not really know. Ignoring effects of our interventions, especially when staring us in the face. Denial.
-. Distracting people by creating a focus on irrelevant threats. Dangerous move, what with the internet and more and more people becoming aware of the usual and commonly used political patterns. The internet may put enough of a stop that. Telephone had a great social impact. Let’s hope the internet makes a similar difference. How can we believe “others than us” are a threat if I have exchanged with “others” and found them to be very human, and not so “other” at all? When we refuse to believe authorities and conjured up “common enemies”, and we think for myself?
+. Distracting people by creating a focus on irrelevant threats. Dangerous move, what with the internet and more and more people becoming aware of the usual and commonly used political patterns. The internet may put enough of a stop that. Telephone had a great social impact. Let’s hope the internet makes a similar difference. How can we believe “others than us” are a threat if I have exchanged with “others” and found them to be very human, and not so “other” at all? When we refuse to believe authorities and conjured up “common enemies”, and we think for ourselves? :)
 . Climate change conferences, as if we can stop the climate changing. We can’t. Too late. And even if we could, is that the way to go? <ref>Geopiracy: The Case Against Geoengineering http://www.etcgroup.org/content/geopiracy-case-against-geoengineering</ref> Intervening in yet another system we do not fully understand. And is the Copenhagen climate change treaty maybe just another global government power grab? ~500-700 new bureaucracies? New taxes? 2-5 percent levies on GDP? If cap-and-trade is used & “buying allowance” is done with inflatory currencies, does that mean that pollution inflates further too? Is this the new bubble? How many displacements will result due to continued pillaging and plundering?

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 . Climate change conferences, as if we can stop the climate changing. We can’t. Too late. And even if we could, is that the way to go? <ref>Geopiracy: The Case Against Geoengineering http://www.etcgroup.org/content/geopiracy-case-against-geoengineering</ref> Intervening in yet another system we do not fully understand. And is the Copenhagen climate change treaty maybe just another global government power grab? ~500-700 new bureaucracies? New taxes? 2-5 percent levies on GDP? If cap-and-trade is used & “buying allowance” is done with inflatory currencies, does that mean that pollution inflates further too? Is this the new bubble? How many displacements will result due to continued pillaging and plundering?
-. We are learning. Are we?
+. We are learning. Are we? [[Wordsmithing#Sperm_are_Dying.21_Females_to_Outnumber_Males.21|Sperm are Dying! Females to Outnumber Males!]]
-* ''Flood Europe with Syrian refugees, drowned children as collateral damage, gain empathy points with the media blaming it all on Assad once again... and enabling more airstrikes, military equipment, and devastation to be unleashed.'' Stories of people walking and blocked borders. Grrr. <ref>France Prepares To Bomb Syria In Retaliation For Refugee Crisis http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/france-prepares-bomb-syria-retaliation-refugee-crisis</ref><ref>In Major Escalation, Washington Demands Greece Blocks Its Airspace For Russian Flights To Syria http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/major-escalation-washington-demands-greece-blocks-its-airspace-russian-flights-syria</ref><ref>We Walk Together: a Syrian family’s journey to the heart of Europe http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/sep/10/we-walk-together-a-syrian-familys-journey-to-the-heart-of-europe-video</ref><ref>Refugee crisis: Danish police close road and rail links with Germany http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/09/refugee-crisis-denmark-police-close-road-germany</ref>
-* On interventions in Afghanistan, repeating such failures, without properly understanding the country's cultural background or its past political history and societal structure ''while being fascinated by the intellectuals, and thoroughly bored by the masses'' <ref>Bitter Lake http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4393514/</ref><ref>Adam Curtis in the emperor's new clothes https://www.opendemocracy.net/dan-hancox/adam-curtis-in-emperor%27s-new-clothes</ref>
 === Overshoot loops and collapses ===

@@ Line 339: / Line 339: @@
 ''The Limits to Growth “standard run” (or business-as-usual, BAU) scenario produced about forty years ago aligns well with historical data that has been updated in this paper. The BAU scenario results in collapse of the global economy and environment (where standards of living fall at rates faster than they have historically risen due to disruption of normal economic functions), subsequently forcing population down. Although the modelled fall in population occurs after about 2030—with death rates rising from 2020 onward, reversing contemporary trends—the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU scenario. In particular, contemporary peak oil issues and analysis of net energy, or energy return on (energy) invested, support the Limits to Growth modelling of resource constraints underlying the collapse.'' <ref>Is global collapse imminent? http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf</ref>
 ==== HANDY ====
-The HANDY report (2014) http://climateandcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/03/Motesharrei-Human-and-Nature-Dynamics.pdf:
+On the HANDY report (2014) http://climateandcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/03/Motesharrei-Human-and-Nature-Dynamics.pdf:
 ''In this paper, we show that two factors can independently lead to collapse: Ecological Strain and Economic Stratification. We also show that there are two routes to such collapses, which we call Type-L and Type-N collapses. Type-N starts with exhaustion of Nature but Type-L results from the disappearance of Labor because Elite consumption does not leave sufficient resources to meet the needs of Commoners. These two distinct routes to a collapse show over-exploitation of Labor, not just of Nature, can cause a societal collapse.''

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 === Overshoot loops and collapses ===
-* Werner analyzes the environmental challenges that we face over short , intermediate and long-term time scales, noting the increasingly "two-way, nonlinear interactions" (i.e., chaotic or disproportionate interactions) between global (resource exploiting) markets and the "Earth System". These challenges — driven by increasing resource demand — result in a "mismatch between short-time-scale market and political forces driving resource extraction/use and longer-time-scale accommodations of the Earth system to these changes." Human markets and the Earth System, observes Werner, operate along different time scales. <ref>Is Earth F**ked? Dynamical Futility of Global Environmental Management and
+==== Time scales ====
 Possibilities for Sustainability via Direct Action Activism https://environmentaldynamics.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/werner_agu2012.pdf (abstract)</ref><ref>AGU Scientist Asks, ‘Is Earth F**ked?’ Surprising Answer: Resistance is NOT Futile! http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/12/09/1306051/agu-scientist-asks-is-earth-fked-surprising-answer-resistance-is-not-futile/</ref>
-* ''The Limits to Growth “standard run” (or business-as-usual, BAU) scenario produced about forty years ago aligns well with historical data that has been updated in this paper. The BAU scenario results in collapse of the global economy and environment (where standards of living fall at rates faster than they have historically risen due to disruption of normal economic functions), subsequently forcing population down. Although the modelled fall in population occurs after about 2030—with death rates rising from 2020 onward, reversing contemporary trends—the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU scenario. In particular, contemporary peak oil issues and analysis of net energy, or energy return on (energy) invested, support the Limits to Growth modelling of resource constraints underlying the collapse.'' <ref>Is global collapse imminent? http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf</ref>
+==== BAU ====
 ''The Limits to Growth “standard run” (or business-as-usual, BAU) scenario produced about forty years ago aligns well with historical data that has been updated in this paper. The BAU scenario results in collapse of the global economy and environment (where standards of living fall at rates faster than they have historically risen due to disruption of normal economic functions), subsequently forcing population down. Although the modelled fall in population occurs after about 2030—with death rates rising from 2020 onward, reversing contemporary trends—the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU scenario. In particular, contemporary peak oil issues and analysis of net energy, or energy return on (energy) invested, support the Limits to Growth modelling of resource constraints underlying the collapse.'' <ref>Is global collapse imminent? http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf</ref>
 The HANDY report (2014) http://climateandcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/03/Motesharrei-Human-and-Nature-Dynamics.pdf: